War index. Monitoring military conflicts in the world in 2024

We present to you the “War Index 2024” from the Non-Governmental Analytical Center “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions”

In 2024, the main global event remains the Russia-Ukraine war, which has become one of the most technologically intensive and large-scale conflicts since the Korean War and the most significant in Europe since 1945.

The Israel-Palestine war, sparked by Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel, has had serious repercussions for the world and the Middle East. It escalated into Israel’s military operation in Gaza, later spreading to Lebanon and triggering airstrike exchanges between Iran and Israel. By year-end, the rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria drastically shifted the regional power balance, diminishing Russia’s influence.

Tensions are rising in the Pacific. The situation around Taiwan remains challenging due to China’s regular naval drills. Particularly concerning is North Korea’s display of military threats and its statements of readiness for war, accompanied by Pyongyang’s direct involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In less developed countries, long-standing conflicts persist, though many are de-escalating through negotiations (e.g., Ethiopia). At the same time, a potentially large-scale conflict between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda is unfolding.

The attacks by Yemeni Houthis on civilian vessels in the Red Sea continue to pose risks to global supply chain security.

The situation in West Africa remains tense, with Russia exacerbating instability and supporting military coups in the region.

Force continues to dominate as the primary method of resolving international disputes. A notable trend is the resurgence of conventional warfare, involving large-scale army clashes. At the same time, the significance of technological advancement—especially in precision and data transmission speed—has become increasingly evident.

The Russia-Ukraine war is part of a broader global confrontation—a “silent third world war”—that has been unfolding since 2011 across numerous theaters of conflict. This is an undeclared war involving all elements of “fourth-generation warfare,” which periodically erupts into overt military conflicts.

Alongside the U.S.-China proxy rivalry, regional powers like Iran and Turkey are actively engaging in military competition.

The influence of networked paramilitary formations is growing, as is the emergence of quasi-state instruments. These quasi-states fill the “dead zones” outside the control of national governments, regional leaders, and the superpowers’ strategic competition. Private military companies are operating at full capacity.

Direct military interventions, combined with the extensive use of non-military tools of pressure and coercion, are reinforcing the trend of using force to achieve political objectives.

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Classification of Military Conflicts

Experts from the Non-Governmental Analytical Center “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions” propose a classification of military conflicts for analyzing global military activity:

Global wars (mostly involving multiple coalitions)

Regional wars

Local wars

Interstate wars (including low-intensity phases)

Wars between a state and a coalition

Foreign intervention

Civil wars (varying intensity, including external interference)

Border conflict (limited armed incident).

Local conflict.

Military coup.

Terrorism (or guerrilla action from a different perspective).

Internal political crisis – tension, political crisis (with the possibility of escalation and external intervention).

Diplomatic standoff – trade wars, diplomatic conflicts.

The methodology for determining the war index involves examining actively manifesting conflicts worldwide during the research period through a series of indicators delineating the conflict’s essence, progression, and significance for regional and global security, and classifying them by tension level, from the hottest to minimal confrontations.

Source: The Non-Governmental Analytical Center “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions”

OCD | 13.02.2025